Bet 2: A Controversial Lucky 31 For The International Break - 7th October 2016

Last weeks result left me down from bet one. Pulling 3/5 with one void resulted in a roughly 35% loss. I now have a balance of £6.39 to use on the next bet.

The International Break

It was, of course, the international break this week as the national teams do battle in the qualifiers for the next World Cup. Yes, World Cup time already if you can believe that.

Anyway, it means no premier league action for us this week which also makes me less confident about bet 2. I could, in theory, just skip a week and postpone the next bet until the EPL is back but that seems like a bit of a cop out so let's just charge ahead.

I did also consider placing this weeks lucky 63 on the international matches as there could well be a lot of goals flying around, but time got away from me so that idea went out of the window.

This Weeks Lucky 63 Lucky 31

After last weeks fizzle of a start I started second guessing the idea of backing my buddy over at BTTS.tips - with his winning streak ending the second I start following the picks. But alas, I may be being too harsh especially as without the void bet it could well have ended in profit.

So, for this week I'll continue to mirror their bets - a decision made easier by the fact that a) it's the international break and b) I'm a bit busy this week so don't have time to go off hunting for alternatives. Or, heaven forbid, do the research myself!

Because of the break though they only have five selections, meaning the bet is actually a lucky 31 not a lucky 63 as normal (I say normal, it's only been one week). I could have found another line to bet on, but decided against as I can just hear the mocking from him if that one line failed and the rest won. 

A lucky 31 is 31 bets (one acca, five four-folds, ten trebles, ten doubles, five singles) which gives us a bet of 20p per line - making a total stake of £6.20 and a potential return of £32.36. You can see the selections below:

Result 1: 3/6 for +£5.84 Return (£6.39 Balance)

Well that wasn't a great start to the blog - 3 correct out of 6 with one void line. As I mentioned in a previous post we need 4 out of 6 to return a profit, and whilst only two lines lost that void line effectively gets discounted (well, sort of - more on that later).

So, what happened? These are the lines that let the bet down:

1. Hull v Chelsea - When I placed this line I did wonder if it was the right bet. The tip cited Chelsea's poor defending and the fact that, whilst their winning streak at the start of the season has clearly ended, they do seem capable of putting at least one in the back of the net against stronger teams - Arsenal and Liverpool being two recent examples of this. My gut didn't like it though - and old tubby is often quite perceptive, so I may listen to it more in future.
2. AFC Wimbledon v Gilingham - I know very little about either of these teams, so have nothing to say here. The logic behind the tip seemed sound, so wouldn't have done it differently.
3. Notts County v Morecambe - Abandoned

The Notts County match was abandoned after 10 minutes due to bad weather. In this scenario I would assume that all of the bets involving it would be made void - meaning that the singles, doubles, trebles, four-fold and five-fold bets including that line as well as the main acca would be refunded.

That's what I thought would happen...

I was wrong:

Looking at the settled bet in my account shows a refund of 15p - the same amount as the stake per line. After digging a little deeper it turns out that for full cover bets (such as a lucky 15/31/63) if one line is made void only the single is refunded, for all other lines the bet stands (that help page is from Coral and the bet was placed on Ladbrokes, but I'm assuming the policy is fairly standard among the bookies).

So I guess you learn something new every day.

What this basically means is that the void bet is discounted, effectively making the six-fold a five-fold, the five-folds turning into four-folds and so on, which makes sense and would have been a good thing had one of the other lines won. Which they didn't.

Result & Standing

So, the total return was £5.84 including the refunded 15p. This makes the challenge balance £6.39 (don't forget that the lucky 63 wasn't for the full tenner meaning there was 55p in the kitty before adding in the return from the bet).

Let's hope for a better result next week!

Bet 1 - 30th September 2016

So, on with the challenge. Below you can find the first bet slip - and yes, this is a real challenge with real money. No paper betting or changing the results after the fact in this blog.

As I mentioned in the opening post in this first attempt at the challenge I'll be placing a Lucky 63 (although in hindsight a Heinz may have made more sense for this, eliminating the singles, but I didn't think of that at the time so we'll stick to the plan).

The one obvious issue with using this method is that the bet has to be divisible by 63, so I won't be able to exactly bet the full amount each time. Instead I'll go for the closest amount without going over - in this case 9.45 which gives a potential maximum return of 58.25.

If you're wondering where the selections in the bet slip came from, a friend of mine runs a football site which dishes out tips on both teams to score.  He's been bragging that this season it's only failed to make a profit in one week and most of the time he's been batting 4/6 or 4/5 (but not yet hit the full load, I might add). You can see a list of results here.

It was actually this consistency that gave me the idea for using BTTS in a lucky 63 and, seeing as he seems to be doing pretty well with the selections thus far I figured I may join him for the ride, at least temporarily. For this reason I won't bother going over the reasoning behind each leg - just read his instead. Besides, the picks aren't mine to begin with...

So that's pretty much it - cross your fingers and wish me luck. 

Welcome to the Challenge: BTTS Lucky 63 £10 to £1,000

The £10 to £1,000 challenge is something that has been going on for years with numerous sites, blogs, tweeters and social media pundits all trying to turn a tenner into a grand.

In this blog I'll be detailing my personal attempts to complete the challenge. To do this I'll be placing one bet each week starting with an initial £10 stake. The next weeks stake will be the full bankroll from the challenge and will continue until I either reach £1,000 or it loses.

For Example:

• Week 1 - £10 bet @ evens returns £20
• Week 2 - £20 winnings @ evens returns £40
• Week 3 - £40 winnings @ evens.... And so on

At evens each week it would take 7 weeks to meet the £1,000 target, although realistically with these challenges people tend to opt for smaller odds bets ("sure things") to maximise their chances of winning so it takes much longer.

Strategy

In this challenge I'll be doing things slightly differently and instead of a straight single low odds bet each week I'm planning on placing a lucky 63 consisting solely of both teams to score bets.

Lucky 63 - A lucky 63 is a full cover bet made up of six selections: 6 singles, 15 doubles, 20 trebles, 15 four folds, 6 five-folds and a 6-fold. 

The benefit of this method (which I've not tried before) is that you're less likely to completely bust out, as even if only one or two legs come in you'll still get some kind of return to use the next week. With BTTS bets having odds of less than evens I'll need to hit 4 out of 6 for a profit in the week, but with the added benefit that if I hit all six there will be a significant payout for the week.

If this method fails then I'll start again and try a different system.

To prove the bets are real (and that I'm not fibbing and changing the selections after the fact) I'll post screenshots of the bet each week.

I'll start this next week as this weeks matches are already in play. Feel free to provide feedback in the comments and join me for the ride if you so choose!